Global Swell Outlook
The Swell Outlook for the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian Oceans – including prospects for tropical cyclone development.
26th February to 4th March 2018:-
The huge blocking area of high pressure over northern Europe will persist this week with a good deal of E’ly wind component. The high pressure will only slowly allow Atlantic weather systems to approach, not expected to arrive until late in the period. One such system will approach SW England at the end of this week. This means there will be excellent swell and waves on the north coasts of Devon and Cornwall throughout the forecast period, increasing in size for Thursday and Friday. As well and here, there will still be excellent bodysurfing conditions all this week in France and northern Spain.
It will be very unsettled across the rest of Spain, Portugal and in Morocco with very large W’ly swell here, and spoilt rather by the very strong onshore winds! Some relatively large W’ly swell is also likely to feed through the straits of Gibraltar into the western Mediterranean – quite unusual conditions for this area to experience!
An area of low pressure will develop off of New England during the period, with a large to very large N’ly swell developing, gradually spreading down the entire Eastern Seaboard. As a result a swell of up to 20 seconds period is expected to affect Florida and the Bahamas later in the period
The South Atlantic is relatively quiet this week.
In the North Pacific Ocean the large N’ly swell which has been affecting the west coast of North America will decrease in size for a time this week, then increase again. Look for beaches which face in a S’ly direction for some of the best shelter and best waves.
Over in the west of the North Pacific there will be further moderate W’ly swell affecting Japan this week, all the east coasts best favoured for clean waves.
There will be some very large swell still between eastern Australia and New Zealand this week, these areas all seeing large waves. There will also be some decent sized swell in Chile and Peru during the first half of this forecast period, not too big and not too small. However, look for some larger W’ly swell to arrive in southern Chile later in the period.
In the Indian Ocean Mauritius will do very well this week with large swell expected. The swell may even increase to dangerous if a tropical cyclone develops and gets too close. Keep an eye on these potential developments via the official centres (see links below)
A large SW’ly swell will spread to southern Australia during the middle of this week. The best bodysurfing conditions may be just afterwards, towards the end of this week.
Official Tropical Cyclone Guidance Centres
Regional Specialised Meteorological Centres
- National Hurricane Center, Miami (Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico, North Atlantic and eastern North Pacific oceans east of 140°W)
- Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo (Western North Pacific Ocean from Malay peninsula to 180°)
- India Meteorological Department, New Delhi (Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea)
- Central Pacific Hurricane Center, Honolulu, Hawaii (North Pacific Ocean 140-180°W)
- Météo France á La Réunion (South Indian Ocean from African coast to 90°E)
- Meteorological Service, Nadi, Fiji (South Pacific Ocean east of 160°E and north of 25°S)
Other tropical cyclone warning centres
- Australian Bureau of Meteorology (Southern hemisphere 90-160°E)
- MetService, Wellington, New Zealand (South Pacific Ocean east of 160°E and south of 25°S)
- Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Pearl Harbor, Hawaii (West of 180°E)
- Canadian Hurricane Centre, Halifax, Canada (Canadian Atlantic shores)